Published:      March 2008

Pages :           150

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Research Background

As the first special research report of hog industry situation and forecast for trends in the overall hog industry chain in China, this report will focus on pig breeding, feed supply, hog breeding and circulation, slaughtering and processing, pork circulation and pork product processing. It will forecast for Chinese hog industry by five historical research chapters: policy environment of hog industry in China, pork demand, feedstuff support as well as cost and profit, by which to answer the questions some insiders suggested on the following issues:

1 What is the prospect of the policy environment of hog breeding and processing in China?

2 How much potential will pork demand grow further?

3 What will be the support capability of feedstuff in China?

4 What will be the cost and profit of hog industry in China?

5 What is the prospect of hog industry in China under the constraints of factors, such as policy environment, feedstuff support, pork demand as well as cost and profit?

6 What is the development model of hog industry in China in the future? What are the characteristics in different regions?

7 How benefit is distributed in the value chain of hog industry in China? What kinds of policies will be adopted to guide the positive development of hog breeding industry and improve the reasonable distribution of value chain?

In addition, it is hoped that analysis on Chinese hog industry chain and representative enterprises will help you to acquire the most profitable investment part in Chinese hog industry. Representative enterprises are classified into different parts in the entire chain, such as breeding enterprises, slaughtering enterprises, meat processing enterprises, integrated enterprises, etc. Analysis on these classified enterprises will help you to obtain the integration advantages and opportunities in Chinese hog industry.  

Table of Contents

Chapter 1    Policy Environment of Hog Industry

1.1    Judgment on Development of Grain Production Policy in China

1.2    Evaluation of Changes of Environmental Protection Policy on Animal Farming

1.3    Analysis of Quality Control over Hog Farming and Processed Products in China

1.4    Analysis of Policy Orientation for Development of Animal Husbandry in China

1.5    Evaluation of Policy on Feed Industry Development

1.6    Analysis of Trend of Policy on Hog Slaughter in China

1.7    Judgment of Trend of Trade Policy on Hog Products in China

1.8    Evaluation of Policy Environment for Hog Production in China

Chapter 2    Analysis of Prospect of Pork Consumption

2.1    Trend of Meat Consumption

2.2    Structure of Pork Consumption and Trend

2.3    Analysis of Prospect of Pork Consumption at Home

2.4    Food Construction Structure of Households and Trend 

2.4.1  Impacts from Rising of Resident's Income to Household Pork Consumption 

2.4.2  Analysis of Growth Potential of Household Pork Consumption Thanks to Rigid Population Growth 

2.4.3  Impacts from Urbanization on Household Pork Consumption 

2.4.4  Forecast of Growing Potential of Household Pork Consumption

2.5    Analysis of Prospect of Industrial Consumption of Pork 

2.5.1  Prospect of Pork Processing 

2.5.2  Proportion of Processed Pork Products in the Total of Meat Products 

2.5.3  Patterns of Industrial Consumption of Pork and Trend 

2.5.4  Processing Capacity of Pork Products 

2.5.5  Forecast of Growing Potential of Demand from Processing Industry

2.6    Analysis of Prospect of Outdoor Consumption of Pork 

2.6.1  Impacts on Outdoor Pork Consumption from Rising of Income 

2.6.2  Impacts on Outdoor Pork Consumption from Urbanization 

2.6.3  Impacts on Outdoor Pork Consumption from Population Growth 

2.6.4  Impacts on Outdoor Pork Consumption from Tourism 

2.6.5  Impacts on Outdoor Pork Consumption from Population Movement 

2.6.6  Forecast of Growing Potential of Outdoor Pork Consumption

2.7    Analysis of Prospect of Pork Export 

2.7.1  Analysis of Future Demand for Pork of Main Importing Countries and Regions 

2.7.2  Impacts on Pork Export from China from International Pork Production Cost 

2.7.3  Impacts on Pork Export from Trade Policies of Main Destination Countries and Regions 

2.7.4  Forecast of Demand for Pork Export from China

2.8    Analysis of Impacts on Pork Consumption from Substitutes

2.9    Analysis of Impacts on Pork Demand from Price Fluctuation

2.10    Impacts on Pork Consumption from Uncertain Factors such as Epidemic

2.11    Evaluation of Growing Potential of Pork Demand and Forecast

Chapter 3    Assessment of the Supply Capacity of Feed and Feedstuff for Hog Farming in China

3.1    Analysis of Feed Supply Structure in China

3.2    Analysis of Corn Material Supply 

3.2.1  China's Corn Production Capacity 

3.2.2  China's Corn Consumption Structure 

3.2.3  Competition for Materials between Corn Deep-processing Industry and Feed Industry 

3.2.4  Constraints on Hog Farming from Corn Feed Supply 

3.2.5  Analysis of the Likelihood for China to Import Corn 

3.2.6  Import Corn or Import Pork 

3.2.7  Evaluation of the Comprehensive Supply Capacity of Corn Material for Hog Farming

3.3    Evaluation of the Supply Capacity of Soymeal 

3.3.1  Analysis of Soybean Production Potential in China 

3.3.2  Analysis of the Reliability of Soybean Import 

3.3.3  Constraint on Hog Farming by Soymeal Supply 

3.3.4  Evaluation of the Comprehensive Supply Capacity of Soymeal Material

Chapter 4    Cost-benefit Analysis of the Value Chain of China's Hog Industry

4.1    Structural Analysis of the Value Chain of Hog Industry 

4.1.1  Cost-benefit Analysis of Hog Feed Production and Prediction 

4.1.2  Cost-Benefit Analysis and Estimates of Hog Farming 

4.1.3  Cost-Benefit Analysis and Forecasts of Hog Farming in Different Regions 

4.1.4  Cost-Benefit Analysis and Estimates of Hog Farming in Different Scales 

4.1.5  Cost-Benefit Analysis and Forecasts of Hog Slaughtering 

4.1.6  Cost-Benefit Analysis of Pork Products and Forecast 

4.1.7  Value Chain Composition Analysis of the Hog Farming Industry in China

4.2    Evaluation of the Rationality of Interest Distribution of the Value Chain of Hog Farming

4.3    Impact on Benefits of Hog Farming from Interest Distribution of the Value Chain

Chapter 5    Analysis of Hog Farming Prospects in China

5.1    Analysis of Total Quantity of Hog Farming in China

5.2    Analysis of Growth Potential of Hog Farming in Different Regions

5.3    Growth Potential for Hog Farming of Different Scales

5.4    Growth Potential of Hog Farming Given the Constraints of Feed Supply

5.5    Pork Trade and Its Impact on Hog Farming in China

Chapter 6    Analysis of the Cyclic Turbulences of China's Hog Farming and Counter Measures

6.1    Review of Cycles of Hog Farming in China 

6.1.1  Definition of the Cycle of Hog Farming 

6.1.2  Review of Main Cycles

6.2    Factors for the Formation of Farming Cycles in China

6.3    Factors Influencing the Cycles of China's Hog Farming 

6.3.1  Feed Material 

6.3.2  Influence from Inventory of Breeding Sows 

6.3.3  Influence from Farming Scale 

6.3.4  Influence from Hog Epidemic and Diseases 

6.3.5  Influence from Risk Control Mechanism of the Farming Industry 

6.3.6  Influence from Interest Distribution of Hog Farming Industry 

6.3.7  Influence from Hog Circulation System 

6.3.8  Influence from GDP Growth 

6.3.9  Other Factors

6.4    Policy Study for Lowering the Turbulence in Hog Farming

Chapter 7    Status of China's Hog Farming Industry in the World and Comparative Study of Costs

7.1    Hog Farming and Cost in US

7.2    EU Hog Farming and Cost

7.3    Hog Farming and Cost in Brazil

7.4    Hog Farming and Cost in Canada

7.5    Changes in the Status of China's Hog Industry in the World

Chapter 8    Enterprise-specific Analysis of China's Hog Industry

8.1    Analysis of Farming Enterprises 

8.1.1  Xinwufeng of Hunan

8.2    Analysis of Slaughtering and Meat Processing Enterprises 

8.2.1  Shuanghui Group 

8.2.2  Yurun Group

8.3    Analysis of Integrated Enterprises 

8.3.1  Hunan Zhenghong Science and Tech 

8.3.2  Gaojin Food from Sichuan

8.4    Advantages on Integrated Enterprises of China's Hog Industry

8.5    Market Shares of Integrated Enterprises in China's Hog Industry

8.6    Future Trend for Hog Industry Enterprises in China

Chapter 9    Overall Evaluation of the Development of China's Hog Industry

9.1    Driving Force for China's Hog Industry

9.2    Negative Factors for the Development of China's Hog Industry

9.3    Overall Evaluation of the Development of Hog Industry in China

Appendix

Figures

Fig 1  Changes of Per Capita Consumption of Animal Products and Aquatic Products at Home from 1990-2006

Fig 2  Consumption Structure of Fresh Pork and Meat Products from 1992-2015

Fig 3  Consumption Structure of Fresh Pork and Meat Products in 2006

Fig 4  Urban and Rural Structure of Pork Consumption  1992-2015

Fig 5  Gross Household Pork Consumption of Urban and Rural Residents  1990-2015

Table 2  Household Pork Consumption in 2015

Fig 6  Per Capita Food Consumption Indices of Households in 1990 and 2006

Fig 7  Income Level of Residents and Per Capita Pork Consumption at Home from 1990-2006

Fig 8  Indices of Per Capita Household Consumption of Pork of Urban Residents of Different Income Levels  1990-2015

Fig 9  Income Structure of Per Capita Household Pork Consumption of Urban Residents  1990-2006

Fig 10  Per Capita Household Pork Consumption of Urban Low-income Groups and Rural Residents  1990 - 2015

Fig 11  Household Pork Consumption of Urban and Rural Residents  1990-2015

Fig 12  Urban Population and Gross Household Pork Consumption  1990-2015

Fig 13  Urbanization Level and Household Pork Consumption  1990-2015

Fig 14  Gross Output of Meat Products and Pork Output  1990-2015

Fig 15  Gross Output of Meat Products  Output of Meat Products from Processing Industry and Output of Traditional Chinese-style Meat Products  1990-2015

Fig 16  Disposable Income of Urban and Rural Residents and Expenditure on Outdoor Consumption  1990-2015

Fig 17  Per Capita Annual Consumption of Pork at Restaurants  1992-2015

Fig 18  Added Value of Hotels and Catering Industry and Pork Consumption at Restaurants  1992-2006

Fig 19  Pork Consumption at Restaurants by Urban and Rural Residents  1992-2015

Fig 20  Outdoor Pork Consumption by Residents  1992-2015

Fig 21  Structure of Destinations of Pork Export  2006

Fig 22  Pork Import & Export and Total Trade Volume  1991-2015

Fig 23  US Domestic Pork Retail Price and Hog Procurement Price and CIF Price to China  2005-2006

Fig 24  Trends of Retail Prices Pork  Beef  Mutton  Chicken Meat and Chicken Eggs  1997-2006

Fig 25  Per Capita Pork Consumption  Prices of Pork  Chicken Eggs and Chicken Meat  1997-2006

Fig 26  Output of Manufactured Feed in China 1990 - 2015

Fig 27  Production Structure of Manufactured Feed in China 1990 - 2015

Fig 28  Animal Feed Production Composition in China in 2006 (Not converted to complete feed)

Fig29  Animal Feed Production Composition in China 2006 (Converted to complete feed) 42

Fig 30  Corn Growing Area  Yield and Output in China 1990 - 2015

Fig 31  Crop Growing Structure in China 1990 - 2006

Fig 32  China's Crop Output Structure 1990 - 2006

Fig 33  Corn Consumption Structure in China 1991 - 2006 (crop year)

Fig 34  China's Total Output of Manufactured Feed (in complete feed) and Corn Consumption for Feed 1991 -2015

Fig 35  China's Corn Output  Feed output  Corn Consumption for Feed  Industrial Consumption of Corn and Total Corn Consumption 1990 - 2015

Fig 36  Hog Feed Demand  Output (converted to complete feed) and the Penetration Rate of Hog Feed in China 1990 - 2015

Fig 37  China's Output of Hog Feed (complete feed) and Corn Content 1990 - 2015

Fig 38  Hog Feed Consumption of Corn  Total Feed Consumption of Corn and Total Output of Corn 1991 - 2015

Fig 39  Corn Import and Export and Stocks at the End of Period 1991 - 2015

Fig 40  Soybean Growing Area  Yield and Output in China 1990 - 2015

Fig 41  China's Soybean output and Soybean Crushing Volume 1991 - 2015

Fig 42  China's Soybean Output and Soybean Import 1990 - 2015

Fig 43  China's Total Output of Manufactured Feed (converted to complete feeds) and Soymeal Consumption 1991 - 2015

Fig 44  China's Hog Feed Output (converted to complete feed) and Soymeal Content in Hog Feed 1991 - 2015

Fig 45  Production Cost Composition of Compound Feed for Hogs in China  2006

Fig 46  Output of Compound Feed for Hogs and the Profit Rate in China  1997 - 2006

Fig 47  Piglet Price and Sow Farming Benefits in China  1997 - 2006

Fig 48  Production Cost of Backyard farming Hogs in China  2006

Fig 49  Cost of Backyard farming in China (labor cost not included)  2006

Fig 50  Hog Backyard farming Profits in China (Labor not Included)  2005

Fig 51  Scaled Hog Farming Cost of Different Provinces  2006

Fig 52  Profits of Scaled Hog Farm of Different Provinces in China  2005

Fig 53  Backyard farming Cost Structure in China  2006

Fig 54  Cost Composition of Backyard farming of Hogs in China  1991 - 2006

Fig 55  Cost Composition of Scale-farming Pisg in China  2006

Fig 56  Hog Scale-farming Cost Composition in China  1991 - 2006

Fig 57  Profits of Backyard farming vs. Scale-farming in China  1991 - 2006

Fig 58  Profit Rate of Backyard farming VS Scale-farming in China  1991 - 2006

Fig 59  Slaughtering Cost Composition of Large Slaughtering Enterprises in China  2006

Fig 60  Hog Price VS Profit Rate of Slaughtering Industry in China  1997 - 2006

Fig 61  Value Chain of Hog Industry in China  2005

Fig 62  Profit Distribution Composition of Hog Industrial Chain in China  1997 -2006

Fig 63  Comparison of Interest Rates across Sectors of Hog Industry  1997 - 2006

Fig 64  China's pork output and the Quantity of Fattened Hogs  1991 - 2006

Fig 65  China Pork Output Trend  1991 - 2015

Fig 66  China Pork Output Index across Regions in China  1991- 2015

Fig 67  Regional Structure of Pork Production in China  1991 - 2015

Fig 68  Growth Rate of Pork Output in Northeast China vs. National Average  1991 - 2015

Fig 69  Pork Output Growth Trend in the Northwest  1991 - 2006

Fig 70  Hog Farming Scale Structure in China  2006

Fig 71  Backyard Farming VS Scaled-Farming of Hogs in China  1991 - 2015

Fig 72  Consumption of Corn for Feed  Soymeal in China vs. Pork Output  1991 - 2015

Fig 73  Pork Price and Import and Export Volume  1991 - 2006

Fig 74  China's Pork Output and Trade Volume  1991 - 2015

Fig 75  Hog Price in China1952 - 2007

Fig 76  Annual Fluctuations of Hog Price in China 1984 - 2007

Fig 77  Hog Price Trend in China 1984 -2007

Fig 78  Monthly Price Trend during the Hog Farming Cycle 1997 - 2007

Fig 79  Price Range for Hogs and Corn in China 1985 - 2007

Fig 80  Hog Price during the Streptococcus Epidemic and Blue Ear Disease 2005 - 2007

Fig 81  Hog Price Fluctuation vs. GDP Growth Rate in China 1979-2007

Fig 82  Hog Farm Size Structure in US  2005

Fig 83  Hog Farming Cost Structure in US  2006

Fig 84  Corn Prices in US and China  1999 - 2006

Fig 85  Hog Farming Cost Structure in Germany  2006

Fig 86  Hog Farming Cost Structure in UK  2006

Fig 87  Cost Composition of Hog Farming in Denmark  2006

Fig 88  Hog Farming Cost Structure in Brazil  2006

Fig 89  Hog Farming Cost Structure in Canadian  2006

Tables

Table 1.1  Judgment on Trend of Policy Environment for Hog Farming in China

Table 2.1 Per Capita Meat Consumption of China  1990-2007

Table 2.2  Per Capita Consumption of Pork by Provinces in China  2000-2006

Table 2.3  Per Capita Consumption of Beef by Provinces in China  2000-2006

Table 2.4  Per Capita Consumption of Mutton by Provinces in China  2000-2006

Table 2.5  Per Capita Consumption of Poultry Meat by Provinces in China  2000-2006

Table 2.6  Per Capita Consumption of Poultry Egg by Provinces in China  2000-2006

Table 2.7  Expenditure of Urban Residents for Pork by Provinces in China  2000-2006

Table 2.8  Pork Consumption and Population Growth in Urban Areas in China  1991-2015

Table 2.9  Pork Consumption and Population Growth in Rural Areas in China  1991-2015

Table 2.10  Pork Consumption and Population Flow in Urban Areas in China  1992-2015

Table 2.11  Pork Consumption and Per Capita Income Growth in Urban Areas in China  1990-2015

Table 2.12  Pork Consumption and Per Capita Income Growth in Rural Areas in China  1990-2015

Table 2.13  Per Capita Outdoor Consumption of Pork by Urban and Rural Residents in China  1992-2015

Table 2.14  Per Capita Outdoor Expenditure of Pork by Urban and Rural Residents in China  1992-2015

Table 2.15  Exports of Pork in China  1991-2007 123

Table 3.1  Output of Hog Complete Feed by Provinces in China  1997-2006

Table 3.2  Prices of Hog Feed by Provinces in China  1997-2007

Table 3.3  Output of Corn in China  1990-2015

Table 3.4  Import and Export of Corn in China  1991-2007

Table 3.5  Consumption of Corn for Feed by Provinces in China  1998-2006

Table 3.6  Prices of Corn by Provinces in China  1997-2007

Table 3.7  Output of Soybean in China  1990-2015

Table 3.8  Imports of Soybean in China  1990-2007

Table 3.9  Consumption of Soymeal by Provinces in China  1998-2006

Table 3.10  Prices of Soymeal by Provinces in China  1997-2007

Table 4.1 Heads of Breeding Hog by Provinces in China  2000-2007

Table 4.2 Hog Inventory by Provinces in China  1998-2007

Table 4.3 Hog Crop by Provinces in China  1998-2007

Table 4.4 Hog Crop on Different Scales in China  2001-2007

Table 4.5  Output of Pork by Provinces in China  1998-2007

Table 4.6  Ratio of Live Hog prices with Feed Cost by Provinces in China  1997-2007

Table 4.7  Ratio of Live Hog prices with Corn Cost by Provinces in China  1997-2007

Table 4.8  Pork Production by Global Counties  2006

Table 4.9  Hog Production Cost  Revenue & Profit of Backyard Farming in China  1997-2007

Table 4.10  Hog Production Cost  Revenue & Profit of Scaled Farms in China  1997-2007

Table 4.11  Live Hog Prices by Provinces in China  1997-2007

Table 4.12  Piglet Prices by Provinces in China  1997-2007

Table 4.13  Pork Prices by Provinces in China  1997-2007

Table 4.14  Pork Supply and Demand Balance Sheet in China  1999-2015