According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the earthquake in Sichuan caused the death of 1.52 million heads of hogs, 60,000 cattle, 178,000 sheep, 14 million birds of poultry, etc. Prior to this, the government’s figure of hog death was 792,000 heads.
The latest figure of 1.52 million heads of dead hogs accounts for 2.87% of Sichuan’s current hog inventory. 1.52 million heads of hogs equal to 120,000 MT pork, accounting for 5% of the current pork supply.
Due to high pork price, pork market features a moderate surplus at present. If the earthquake induces a pork price hike, it would further subdue pork consumption and aggravate pork surplus. Moreover, the gap arising from Sichuan’s hog death can be made up by state reserve, slaughterhouses’ stock and pork imports. BOABC predicts that pork price hike is unlikely in the short run.
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