China’s urea exports recorded 23,000 MT in Oct. and 4.288 million MT in Jan. ~ Oct., down 95%
but up 52.7% respectively on the year-on-year basis. As Chinese urea has little price advantage in
the international market, our estimate of 500,000 ~ 700,000 MT urea exports in the fourth quarter
of 2008 remains unchanged.
DAP exports were 2,600 MT in Oct. and 714,000 MT in Jan. ~ Oct., down 98.7% and 55.6%
respectively on the year-on-year basis. MAP exports were 17,000 MT in Oct. and 939,000 MT in
Jan. ~ Oct., down 93.7% and 32.9% respectively on the year-on-year basis. Considering the
reduction of export tax to 10% in Dec. and Jan., monthly DAP and MAP exports are expected to
reach 200,000 ~ 300,000 MT in Dec. and Jan.
NPK exports recorded 290 MT in Oct., down 68.3% from the month before and down 99.5% on
the year-on-year basis. NPK exports totaled 350,000 MT in Jan. ~ Oct., a slip of 31% on the
year-on-year basis. NPK exports are presumed to pick up under the new export tariff.
Ammonium chloride, ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate exports were 4,400 MT, 2,300 MT
and 2,500 MT in Oct., down 87.4%, 97.9% and 88.8% respectively on the year-on-year basis.
